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Talks, heard slowly

Each one rebuilds a single talk's argument beside the talk itself. Every claim carries a timestamp; tap it and the talk plays from there.

What Counts as a Bubble

Whether AI is a bubble depends on what you count. Paul Kedrosky counts the capital, the credit and the fragility; Azeem Azhar counts the customers. Their debate on The Ezra Klein Show in seven steps, from the history of overbuilding to what would change their minds.

Paul Kedrosky · Azeem Azhar — Is There an A.I. Bubble? A Debate. | The Ezra Klein Show

  1. 1:52 1 · Every buildout overbuilds
  2. 7:47 2 · Demand is real
  3. 12:48 3 · Tokens times price
  4. 16:37 4 · What counts as a pop
  5. 31:48 5 · Who carries the risk
  6. 44:19 6 · Repricing labor
  7. 50:16 7 · Backlash and friction
  8. 1:01:56 Coda

Learning on the Job

Everything turns on whether AIs can learn on the job. Tyler Cowen turns the tables on Dwarkesh Patel, from wild history and the Hugging Face attack to sentience, timelines, and a closing disagreement about 2035.

Tyler Cowen · Dwarkesh Patel — Tyler Cowen and Dwarkesh Patel Predict the Future | Interesting Times

  1. 1:31 1 · Due for wild history
  2. 4:15 2 · Not AGI yet
  3. 6:38 3 · What scared San Francisco
  4. 11:09 4 · What the labs aren't showing
  5. 15:43 5 · Psychosis and sentience
  6. 26:54 6 · Learning on the job
  7. 37:12 7 · What to watch
  8. 42:58 Coda

Who Has to Be Sure

Both expect machines far smarter than us, and neither thinks control is guaranteed. Stuart Russell says we cannot bet the species on their goodwill; Jürgen Schmidhuber says their goals will barely touch ours. Their Counterpoint debate in seven exchanges, from the control problem to what would move each of them.

Stuart Russell · Jürgen Schmidhuber — Could AI Destroy the World? A Debate with Stuart Russell and Jürgen Schmidhuber | Counterpoint

  1. 2:07 1 · The case for alarm
  2. 7:32 2 · No "we, the humans"
  3. 14:24 3 · Curious about their origins
  4. 17:04 4 · Aggregation and invented goals
  5. 25:08 5 · The schnitzel and the basketball court
  6. 31:04 6 · Imitation humans
  7. 37:08 7 · Motives
  8. 41:45 Coda

What Mattering Is

To matter is to be bound to something real. Vervaeke's case in five steps, from the psychology of a meaningful life, through the root of intelligence, down to the ground of reality.

John Vervaeke · Kitarō Nishida — Metaphysics of Mattering | John Vervaeke on Life’s Deep Connections

  1. 0:31 1 · Meaning in life
  2. 2:47 2 · Connectedness
  3. 8:26 3 · Where caring starts
  4. 13:02 4 · Relevance realization
  5. 26:21 5 · Thrown between
  6. 31:11 Coda

Writing from the Frontier

You write from the frontier where what you think is you meets what is not. David Whyte, in conversation with David Perell, on attention, darkness, undoing, beautiful questions and love.

David Whyte — Inside the Mind of a Master Writer (David Whyte Interview)

  1. 0:00 1 · Prolonged attention
  2. 5:13 2 · The frontier
  3. 9:16 3 · Below the horizon
  4. 21:35 4 · Undoing
  5. 39:22 5 · By heart
  6. 48:57 6 · Beautiful questions
  7. 1:06:22 7 · Love is heartbreak
  8. 1:11:54 Coda
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